基于台风危害的厦门地区园林树木受损 原因研究

基于2016年9月16日1614号台风对厦门绿地的严 重影响，通过为期2个月对台风现场实地调研以及相关部门抢 险的数据统计，第一时间了解此次台风中厦门重要园林树种的 受害状况，分析树木在台风中的受损原因。台风灾害发生后给 厦门市的园林树木以及景观带来巨大的损害，因此对于厦门地 区园林树木受损原因的研究非常有必要。研究了受损原因后， 才可以在灾前以及灾后对重要的园林树木种进行栽培养护管 理，增加厦门绿化的抗灾能力以及灾后的及时恢复工作。     

基于K-S检验与距离相关分析的网络借贷信用评价指标体系构建

网络借贷作为一种新型互联网金融模式,提升了金融资源使用效率,缓解了小企业融资难的困局。构建合理的网络借贷信用评价指标体系,从而对网络借贷的潜在风险及时甄别与预防,对互联网金融健康持续发展意义重大。本文根据K-S检验与距离相关分析相结合,筛选对借款客户违约状态甄别能力强的指标,建立了网络借贷信用评价指标体系,通过P2P网络借贷(peer to peer lending,个人对个人借贷)平台LendingClub交易数据进行实证研究,结果表明:不仅借款金额、借款利率等借款标的特征对借贷者违约具有显著相关性,借款者年龄等个人特征、借款者年收入等财务特征以及借款者违约次数等信用特征均对借贷者违约风险产生显著影响。投资者在出借资金时,往往青睐于已婚、年龄适中、具有一定工作经历、历史违约次数较少的借款人。因此,风险监管部门应构建网络借贷违约风险评估模型,对P2P平台进行风险监测,同时建立关键信息共享机制,融合多源数据,明确审查范围,实现P2P网络借贷行业健康有序发展。     

Non-stationary additive utility and time consistency

Within a continuous time life cycle model of consumption and savings, I study the properties of the most general class of additive intertemporal utility functionals. They are not necessarily stationary, and do not necessarily multiplicatively separate a discount factor from “per-period utility”. I prove rigorously that time consistency holds if and only if the per-period felicity function is multiplicatively separable in $t$, the date of decision and in $s$, the date of consumption, or equivalently, if the Fisherian instantaneous subjective discount rate does not depend on $t$. The model allows to explain “anomalies in intertemporal choice” even when the agents are time consistent and various empirical regularities. On the other hand, the model allows to characterize mathematically the “effective consumption profile” of naive, time-inconsistent agents.     

Cultural distance and international trade in services: A disaggregate view

In this paper, we estimate the effect of “cultural distance” on bilateral trade in services. The measure of cultural distance we use is based on scores that reflect country averages of individuals’ attitudes towards inequality, self-orientation, competition, uncertainty, traditions, and indulgence. Controlling for standard ingredients of gravity equations, we show that an aggregate measure of cultural distance has a significantly negative effect on total bilateral services trade. Once we take a more disaggregate view, we find that the strength of this effect differs across various types of services and various aspects of cultural distance.     

Financial analyst coverage for U.S. firms facing foreign competition: Evidence from trade liberalization

This study examines financial analyst coverage for U.S. firms following an increase in foreign product market competition. To capture exogenous shocks to domestic firms' competitive environments, we exploit a quasi‐natural experiment from large import tariff reductions over the 1984 to 2005 period in the manufacturing sector. Using data for the years before and after large tariff reductions, our difference‐in‐differences analysis shows evidence of a significant decrease in analyst coverage for incumbent U.S. firms when they face greater entry threat from foreign competitors. We also find that analysts with less firm‐specific experience and less accurate prior‐period forecasts are more likely to stop following the domestic firm when foreign competition intensifies. Overall, the findings suggest that foreign product market competition from global trade liberalization is an important determinant of financial analysts' coverage decisions.     

军民融合社会关系网络对军民融合新创企业成长的影响

军民融合新创企业是推动我国国防建设和社会经济融合发展的重要力量，军民融合社会关系网络具有丰富的异质性资源，可以有效促进军民融合新创企业成长。借鉴社会网络理论，构建以关系深度、关系广度、关系高度为代表的军民融合社会关系网络、耦合共生与军民融合新创企业成长理论模型，通过对收集的304份军民融合新创企业问卷数据进行实证分析，结果发现：军民融合社会关系网络对军民融合新创企业成长具有正向影响；耦合共生在军民融合社会关系网络与军民融合新创企业成长间发挥中介作用；创业导向显著调节耦合共生与军民融合新创企业成长的关系。     

科研组织应该控制其衍生企业吗——基于中国上市科研组织衍生企业的研究

创办衍生企业是科研组织实现科技成果转化的重要途径之一。在衍生企业创办之初，科研组织作为“家长”，在衍生企业成长过程中扮演着不可或缺的角色，但随着衍生企业逐渐发展壮大，科研组织作为学术机构参与企业经营管理的弊端也逐步显现。同时，伴随着衍生企业不断成长，对外来资本的需求增加，母体科研组织面临股权被稀释，甚至失去控制权的问题。那么，当衍生企业发展到一定规模，母体科研组织作为衍生企业实际控制人是利大于弊还是弊大于利？以中国境内上市科研组织衍生企业为样本，分析科研组织衍生企业母体控制权对企业绩效的影响，结果发现，科研组织作为衍生企业实际控制人时，企业绩效更优。     

基于行业化的石油勘探开发项目监督管理体系研究

为了找出适宜行业发展的监督管理体制,在国内外相关研究成果的基础上,分析了我国石油勘探开发项目监督管理的现状。针对现行的甲方一体化监督存在的问题,提出了由三大石油公司联合,建立石油行业层面的勘探开发项目监督管理体系,对石油勘探开发项目实行全行业统一、规范的标准化监督管理。阐述了构建基于行业化的石油勘探开发项目监督管理体系的主要做法和监督管理机制的运行。     

Policy analysis and advocacy for livestock-based development: The gap between household-level analysis and higher-level models

The dichotomy in approaches to policy analysis for developing countries’ livestock sectors is presented. Substantial experience and information generated from a large number of household-level studies is not being utilised by macro- and aggregate models which fail to recognise heterogeneity, dynamics and fundamental drivers of change in livestock systems. Household-level studies are not standardised and rarely identify and characterise key drivers and mechanisms for exploiting heterogeneity in policy analysis. The paper provides an overview of a set of six papers contained in a special edition which define and address this gap in analytical approaches and identify aspects of the way forward. Evidence is presented of inconsistencies and practicalities which emphasise the gap, but all papers present evidence of integrative progress and list opportunities for accelerating it. Constraints on the subject matter are outlined and a challenge to livestock policy analysts is made.     

Social Marketing of a Fortified Staple Food at Scale: Generating Demand for Fortified Rice in Brazil

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the social marketing strategy implemented by PATH and GAIN to create a sustainable market for rice fortification in Brazil and develop a replicable model relevant to other geographies. It draws on market research on consumer attitudes and practices, as well as key demand and consumer metrics before and after execution of the social marketing campaign in Brazil. This marketing endeavor succeeded in establishing the viability of introducing fortified rice in a country through a purely market-based approach. Whereas social marketing is vital to the introduction and scale-up of fortified staple foods through commercial markets, it is not sufficient to achieve meaningful scale and sustainability. Engagement from the public and social sectors, clear governance, and other factors are critical to substantial and long-term impact. Lessons from this first attempt to introduce a fortified staple food through a market-based approach are relevant to similar initiatives elsewhere.